How do El Niño and La Niña change the weather?

time:2023-06-02 16:52:09source:BBC News (British Broadcasting Corporation) author:Press center4

New data shows that 2022 was the fifth hottest year for Europe since records began.

ñoandLaNiñ

But scientists are warning that 2023 could be even warmer, as a climate phenomenon called La Niña - which has been suppressing global temperatures - comes to an end.

ñoandLaNiñ

La Niña is part of a climate phenomenon called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system.

ñoandLaNiñ

It has two opposite states - El Niño and La Niña - both of which significantly alter weather patterns across the globe.

ñoandLaNiñ

For the last few years, the world has been in successive La Niña periods, which have lowered temperatures and brought heavy rains to Canada and Australia.

ñoandLaNiñ

Winds blowing along the Equator above the Pacific Ocean - from South America in the east towards Asia in the west - were stronger than normal.

ñoandLaNiñ

These "trade winds" piled warm water off the coast of Asia, raising the sea surface level. In the east, near the Americas, cold water flowed upwards to the surface.

ñoandLaNiñ

During El Niño the opposite happens - weaker trade winds mean the warm water spreads out back towards the Americas, and less cold water rises towards the surface.

ñoandLaNiñ

The phenomenon was first observed by Peruvian fisherman back in the 1600s.

ñoandLaNiñ

They noticed that warm waters seemed to peak near the Americas in December, and nicknamed the event "El Niño de Navidad", Christ Child in Spanish.

ñoandLaNiñ

Not every El Niño or La Niña event is the same, but scientists have observed some typical effects:

ñoandLaNiñ

Temperatures

ñoandLaNiñ

worldwide temperatures increase by about 0.2C during an El Niño episode, and fall about 0.2C during La Niña.

ñoandLaNiñ

El Niño means warmer water spreads further, and stays closer to the surface. This releases more heat into the atmosphere, creating wetter and warmer air.

ñoandLaNiñ

The hottest year on record, 2016, was an El Niño year.

ñoandLaNiñ

Between 2020 and 2022, the northern Hemisphere had three La Niña episodes in a row.

ñoandLaNiñ

Despite the La Niña triple, the EU's climate monitoring service says that 2022 was the fifth warmest year on record.

ñoandLaNiñ

Prof Adam Scaife from the Met Office said: "worldwide average temperature over the last three years has been at near record levels, but it would have been even higher without the cooling effects of a prolonged La Niña."

ñoandLaNiñ

A 0.2C temperature rise would add about 20% to the existing global temperature rise from climate change.

ñoandLaNiñ

The Met Office expects La Niña to end later this year, "raising the prospect of even higher global temperatures".

ñoandLaNiñ

Changes to rainfall

ñoandLaNiñ

During El Niño events, the warmer water pushes the Pacific jet stream's strong air currents further to the south and the east.

ñoandLaNiñ

This brings wetter weather to southern US states and the Gulf of Mexico, while the north of the US and Canada remain drier.

ñoandLaNiñ

Asia, Australia, and Central and Southern Africa typically experience drought.

ñoandLaNiñ

In La Niña events the opposite is seen: drought in the southern US, and heavy rains in Canada and Asia.

ñoandLaNiñ

In October 2022, Australia experienced record rainfall and flooding driven by La Niña.

ñoandLaNiñ

Tropical storms

ñoandLaNiñ

La Niña also generates more hurricanes in the Atlantic - affecting Florida and other southern states of the US - but fewer tropical storms in the Pacific.

ñoandLaNiñ

The opposite is true of El Niño events.

ñoandLaNiñ

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically occur every two to seven years, and usually last nine to 12 months.

ñoandLaNiñ

They don't necessarily alternate: La Niña events are less common than El Niño episodes.

ñoandLaNiñ

The extreme weather events caused by El Niño and La Niña affect infrastructure, food and energy systems around the world.

ñoandLaNiñ

The drought in Canada and Asia caused by the 2014-16 El Niño phase resulted in crop failure and damaged the food security of more than 60m people, according to the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation.

ñoandLaNiñ

During El Niño events, less cold water rises to the surface off the Americas which brings fewer nutrients from the bottom of the ocean.

ñoandLaNiñ

That means there is less food available for marine species like squid and salmon, in turn reducing fish stocks for South American fishing communities.

ñoandLaNiñ

In 2021, the UN's climate scientists, the IPCC, said the ENSO events which have occurred since 1950 are stronger than those observed between 1850 and 1950.

ñoandLaNiñ

However, it also said that historical evidence like tree rings, corals and sediment records shows that there have been variations in the frequency and strength of these episodes since the 1400s.

ñoandLaNiñ

The IPCC concluded there is no clear evidence that climate change has affected El Niño or La Niña events.

ñoandLaNiñ
Related content
Recommended content